Friday, June 20, 2008

Whats With That Georgia Poll?

As noted at Beyond the Polls there is polling going on out there in which the results should be questioned because of the the amount of weight the poll gives to each party. For example Beyond the Polls shows that polling done by PPD in Ohio showed Obama winning by 11 points! But if you look at their internal numbers their party ID breakdown is 55 D and 30 R if you compare that with Exit polls from '04 you find that for that to be accurate there would need to be a 20 point swing in less than 4 years.

Then today came a poll from Insider Advantage showing McCain only beating Obama by 1.6% in Georgia! So the first thing I did was look at the internal numbers. And although I believe they are under sampling Republicans again (R+5 Insider Adv. and R+8 CNN Exits 2004) its the fact that their internals are all over the map that makes the result questionable.

For example Insider Adv. only includes Hispanics as 1.2 % of the poll when Hispanics voted as 4% in 2004 according to CNN. If anything the Hispanic population is growing not shrinking so they could be under representing the Hispanic vote by 5%.

Also it has Obama only winning 83 % of the African American vote. Everyone expects Obama to win close to 95 % of that vote. Are they saying that close to 20 percent of African American community might not vote for Obama. That would mean Kerry did better with Blacks in Georgia than Obama!

Finally McCain is only winning 7 % of the Hispanic vote. While nationally other polls like IPsos have McCain over 20 % with Hispanics I don't know why It would be only 7 % in Georgia.

Last time Insider Advantage polled GA was its primary poll. They were off by 20 points tied for the most of any poll used to calculate the final RCP Average.

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