Thursday, June 19, 2008

Mississippi According to Barack

Barack Obama regularly on the campaign trail makes things up, changes his mind, doesn't have a clue what he is talking about, and gets very obvious things wrong such as him claiming that he visited 57 or more states while campaigning. So I guess It shouldn't be a shock to anyone when he rattle's off state election data which is clearly inaccurate. But what makes this important enough to write about is that he is basing his election strategy on faulty data, which could end up costing him the election. In a Time Magazine Article Obama is quoted about the possibilities of being able to win Mississippi:

"I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map," Obama replied to a question about his strategy from a Concord, N.H., woman at a house party last August. Pacing around the old Victorian home, the wooden floor creaking, Obama went on: "I'll give you one specific example: Mississippi is 40% African American, but it votes 25% African American. If we just got the African Americans in Mississippi to vote their percentage, Mississippi is suddenly a Democratic state. And Georgia may be a Democratic state. Even South Carolina starts being in play. And I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30% around the country, minimum. "

The problem is that none of those numbers are right. Obama claims that Mississippi is 40% black when according to the 2000 census, and The Almanac of American Politics Mississippi is only 36% black. Then Obama claims that it votes 25% African American but according to CNN 2004 Exit Polls African Americans made up 34% of the voting population which is pretty much in line with the percentage of blacks in Mississippi. (And actually if you calculate in the fact that the only Congressional District in MS that is losing population is the majority black district then blacks are probably overrepresented not under as Obama claims.)

Obama's numbers would have you believe that Blacks vote 15 percent less than their population in the state. And that if he could just get them to vote at the same percentage as whites in the state than he could win it. But as shown blacks in Mississippi vote in proportion to their population making Obama argument flawed and eliminating his chances in the state.

What makes this important is that recently there have been talks from the Obama campaign that they don't need Florida or Ohio to win the election because they would be able to replace them with Georgia. Well, if the logic Obama used in calculating his chances in Mississippi is similar to how he is seeing his chances in Georgia he may be in for a rude awakeing on election night when his strategy falls flat.